Last time Apple pioneered an industry revolution was way back in the 1980′s when it launched a series of ground breaking personal computers culiminating in the Apple Mac. These desktop devices revolutionised people’s lives and, in some cases, whole industries (e.g Graphic Design). Yet history shows us that in the end the much loved Mac was over run by the IBM PC clones that flooded the market during the 1990′s.
So will the Apple and the iPhone suffer the same fate as the Mac? Will it once again become a niche player in a world flooded by iClones?
It’s not just evolution, it’s revolution… Three years ago, every single phone maker was blown away by the iPhone, and everyone started trying to copy it… because they knew if they didn’t they would lose the market.
The iClone wars are inevitable. The media and IT industries are rapidly waking up to the idea that the real money is no longer in content, commerce or apps but in owning the mobile device (See Facefone, myPhone and LinkedTel and GigaOm’s Who Is Getting Rich Off the iPhone?).
All the market leaders will want their own iClone in the future. It will become a matter of survival. After all who can survive when Analog Dollars equal Digital Pennies?
Google’s Nexus and the mobile eReaders (e.g. Amazon’s Kindle, Sony’s eReader and TechCrunch’s CrunchPad) are the first wave of what will become an industry wide rush towards owning the intelligent mobile node. Within the next 2-3 years everybody who wants to stay in the game will be trying to profit from controlling the MobCon sweet spot.
All this activity in the device market will result in the revenues models being reconfigured to maximise profits and acquire new market share within the increasingly competitive MobCon landscape.
A table of past, present and future MobCon (Mobile Content Convergence) Business Models
Eventually this cross industry wide rush towards the MobCon sweet spot will inevitably lead us to the point where the node (i.e. The Mobile Device) will no longer be the competitive edge but the “Freemium” offering competitors use to acquire and aggregate new market share.
How the convergence of IT, Media and Telecoms will inevitably lead to Free Media Rich, Devices and Apps
So the node (i.e. the Devices and the Apps) will become the new content in the second wave of the MobCon.
How long will this cycle take? 5, 10 maybe even 15 years if the slow rate of change the desktop web is any indicator of progress. But it will happen and when it does the focus will then be on owning the network.
The take away message in all this? Those who want to own the MobCon end game won’t be thinking about building iClones. They’ll be thinking about how they can quietly acquire exclusive ownership of the intelligent network while everybody else is busy trying to replicate Apple’s success.
Further Reading [Updated 9-9-2010]
Posted on December 23, 2009
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